The Future of Cloud Computing: Industry Predictions for 2012
With 9th Cloud Expo in full swing, what's being said about the future landscape of cloud computing?
Nov. 23, 2011 05:00 AM
With 9th Cloud Expo - Cloud Expo Silicon Valley - still in full swing at the Santa Clara Convention Center in California, what is being said about the future landscape of cloud computing? In this round-up we asked a variety of members of the cloud computing ecosystem, from CIOs to independent consultants to marketeers.
We asked in each case for their top five predictions. Here are their views on what's in store in 2012:
Santa Clara Convention Center is getting ready for Cloud Expo Silicon Valley
DIY Service Provision | Cloud of Devices | Security Breach Looms | Personalized SPs | African Growth
Lauren C. States | @lauren_states
VP & CTO, Cloud Computing & Growth Initiatives, IBM
Lauren is responsible at IBM for the technology strategy for the company's growth initiatives, including cloud computing, Smarter Planet, business analytics and emerging markets. Previously she was VP of Cloud Computing for the IBM Software Group. She is also a Top 100 Cloud Blogger.
1. Cloud computing will allow everybody to be a service provider. The infrastructure to do things is no longer a limiting factor. Focus will shift to application and business services.
2. Employees will be able to use any device to access, transact and manage their work.
3. There will be a security breach in 2012 that will force organizations to rethink how they secure their data and applications.
4. A new class of real time, personalized service providers will emerge and they will develop partnerships to exploit the advantages of big data, social media and mobility.
5. In Africa, the convergence of social, mobile and cloud will emerge as critical tools for governments to deliver services and drive economic growth.
Greg Ness | @Archimedius
VP of Marketing at Vantage Data Centers
Greg, a Top 100 Cloud Blogger, is a Silicon Valley marketing veteran with background in networking, security, application delivery and virtualization. He is a Vice President at Vantage Data Centers. Formerly at Infoblox, Blue Lane Technologies, Juniper Networks, Redline Networks, McAfee, IntruVert Networks and ShoreTel. He will be attending 9th Cloud Expo - Cloud Expo Silicon Valley (Nov 7-10) - like so many others in the industry - to ensure he is bang up to date with all that's going on in the cloud computing ecosystem.
1. Five more public cloud outages in 2012... industry will take them in stride because expectations have been set by 2010/11 outages and more public cloud customers are adopting hybrid cloud strategies.
2. VMware will break the LAN barrier through partnerships and inhouse innovations around networking and make significant headway in infrastructure 2.0
3) Arista Networks, Infoblox and Palo Alto Networks will attain new heights of market awareness and leadership
4. A new public cloud player will enter the market
Social Nets | Tablets | New Collaboration Models | IT Skills Shortage | RoR & HTML5
Peter Coffee | @petercoffee
VP and Head of Platform Research at Salesforce.com
Listed as one of the Top 100 Bloggers in the Cloud Computing Ecosystem, Peter joined Salesforce in 2007 after 18 years as a senior contributor to the enterprise IT journals eWEEK and PC Week. Based in the Los Angeles area, he works with IT professionals and ISVs to build a global community based on Force.com: the salesforce.com Platform Cloud.
1. Surging volume of externally originating data (e.g., social nets) will drive more companies to cloud-based analytics like Radian6.
2. Accelerating tablet use will create vast numbers of multi-device users who will prefer cloud-based tools like Google Docs.
3. File-based models of collaboration will give way to cloud-based, conversational models like Chatter where file location is irrelevant.
4. Continued scarcity of IT skills - despite still-high general unemployment - will discourage complex 'private cloud' schemes.
5. Developer talent will focus on Ruby on Rails, HTML5, and other skill sets that improve cloud experience and weaken legacy preferences.
The growth and success of Cloud Computing will be on display at the upcoming Cloud Expo
Private Cloud | Infrastructure Irrelevance | Enterprise API Economy | Enterprise App Stores | Cloud Concierge Services
Christian Reilly | @reillyusa
Manager of Global Systems Engineering, Bechtel
Christian is former President of the Private Cloud, member of the Clouderati and author of the Loose Couple Blog (blog.theloosecouple.com)
1. Traditional enterprises will begin to accept that there is no magic formula for moving their incumbent LoB applications "to the cloud" en masse. During 2012, we will see enlightened enterprises (i.e. those who have already invested time and effort in portfolio identification & consolidation) execute on a multi-faceted deployment and operations strategy for bestshoring their application workloads.
Private Cloud solution will continue to lead the way in this as organizations continue to look for further efficiencies and increased agility to complement their initial server virtualization investments, combined with deploying "capable" applications and some new workloads to public cloud services.
2. In 2012, we will see the beginning of the dawn of infrastructure irrelevance as the unstoppable forces of consumerization shift enterprise spending priority away from the purely mechanical pieces of the data center into areas that help address the surging demand from a new, savvy and empowered user base. This shift will help organizations proactively focus on the needs, and alignment to, their business while enabling a new generation of workforce mobility.
3. The enterprise API economy will be a 2012 concept that is brought into a clearer focus as the successes of "new" enterprises, such as Twitter, Netflix and others are analyzed and learned from. Enterprises burdened by legacy applications will be required to think differently on how to expose locked-in data through APIs to enable them to respond to mobile demands.
4. Throughout 2012, we will see the continued rise of the enterprise app store offered as both SaaS or on-premise as more and more enterprise development activity is undertaken on cross-platform mobile and tablet form factors. Enterprises will be forced to replicate the experience of consumer app stores to provide their user base with a simple mechanism for offering, acquiring and managing the lifecycle of mobile applications. As part of this, we will see the emergence of a number of Mobile Application Management (MAM) solutions that complement the app store approach, offering less invasive methods than MDM to help "secure the data, not the device" as part of the consumerization-driven demand where more and more devices used for daily work tasks are not owned nor provisioned by the company.
5. Finally, 2012 will bring an uptake in interest in cloud concierge services where the emergence of new marketplaces for offering and acquiring cloud services will appeal to many forward-thinking CIOs as they transition from solution providers to service aggregators. Initially, we will see this develop in "carrier-neutral" data center facilities where typical cross-connect services begin to evolve to higher value services, connecting customers to providers through a global offering.
PaaS | Federated Clouds | Big Data & Cloud | Convergence of Mobile, Cloud and Social | Indian & APAC Clouds
Krishnan Subramanian | @krishnan
Industry Analyst covering Cloud Computing & Open Source. Open Source Evangelist
Krish is a Top 100 Cloud Blogger, a card-carrying member of the Clouderati and an all-round force for good in the world of cloud computing. Being an ex-physicist, he says, helps him use a scientific approach towards life, and certainly he has a deep philosophical connection to open source, open standards, and open communications, As an industry analyst he covering areas like cloud infrastructure, SaaS and PaaS.
1. PaaS is the future of cloud services and we will see some interesting business model innovations in 2012.
2. Federated clouds will take off in a big way and we will be seeing more and more cloud brokerage services helping buyers navigate the ecosystem.
3. 2012 will be the year when the marriage between big data and cloud will strengthen. Though we will be seeing more on the analytics side in 2012, we will also be seeing some efforts to remove the inertia associated with big data.
4. The convergence of mobile, cloud and social will accelerate and by the end of 2012, cloud apps that are not "socially aware" and without mobile support will be looked down as "legacy apps". We will see more and more application vendors bringing in feature parity in their apps for different mobile applications. Towards the end of 2012, mobile web apps will dominate over native apps.
5. Watch out for some interesting cloud adoption trends in the Indian sub-continent and APAC region. They will soon become the biggest market for clouds
Join leading Cloud industry players in a fast-moving industry power panel at Cloud Expo
Overhyped PaaS | Public Clouds & Security | VMware Acquisition? | SaaS Desktop Strategy | Interoperability
Brian Gracely | @bgracely
Cloud Evangelist at Cisco
A VMware vExpert and a Top 100 Cloud Blogger, Brian is additionally Co-Host of @thecloudcastnet and Co-Founder of @GracelyGirl.As he says himself: "Take complex new technologies, figure out the future opportunities, connect the dots across the industry, simplify it and explain it to people in suits or t-shirts. That's what I do best."
1. PaaS becomes the overhyped buzzword for 2012, still needing another year to shake out competition in the market before companies begin making decisions on which platforms to adopt. Whoever can combine Java and .NET into an integrated PaaS platform, with options for modern web languages, will take a significant lead with developers.
2. Security issues replace downtime problems as the major story for public clouds. The press will claim that this shows public clouds are not ready for production applications, but it actually creates a new level of awareness and round of start-ups with viable solutions.
3. VMware acquires one of the Software Defined Network (SDN) start-ups, creating the final distinction between traditional Data Center and "Cloud" (Private or SP/Public provided). They now provide all the tools (virtualization, security, network, automation) to allow CloudOps groups to be created within Enterprise or Service Provider.
4. 2012 is the year of "Enough VDI talk, let's create a SaaS desktop strategy".
5. One of the major infrastructure vendors combines OpenStack + the major open-source cloud tools (Chef/Puppet, Xen, etc.) into a unified package that can be deployed in-house (Private Cloud), on AWS (public cloud) or on their vendor-operated cloud, allowing customers to actually deploy cloud in any environment.
Enterprise Clouds | AWS | Service Provider Problem | Open, Open, Open | IaaS Clouds
Randy Bias | @randybias
Top 100 Cloud Blogger and Co-Founder, CTO & Founding CEO of Cloudscaling.
According to Gartner, Randy reminds us, 2012 will be the year of IaaS cloud failures and we'll stumble into the trough of disillusionment. A vast number of expensive 'enterprise cloud' solutions have been widely deployed amongst service providers and enterprises alike, he notes. What he believes we'll discover In 2012 is summarized below.
1. Enterprise clouds don't scale on cost or manageability
Unlike Amazon Web Services (AWS) or webscale clouds in general, enterprise clouds will not scale. Simply put, AWS EC2 is not just the market maker for IaaS clouds, but also the anti-pattern to enterprise datacenters in general. In 2012, we're finally going to see widespread acceptance that the enterprise cloud architectural model is fundamentally broken. At the same time we'll see wider adoption and deployment of webscale clouds by "service providers" both inside and outside the enterprise who realize their enterprise clouds are failed technologies and failed business models.
2. AWS continues to rise in prominence as the guiding light for building webscale clouds
We all know that AWS is successful and winning in the public space, but if their current pace is maintained they are on track for over 2M managed VMs and 2B revenue in 2012. VMware recently claimed an install base of 20M VMs. At 2M, AWS would be 10% of VMware's entire install base, a staggering number to consider. At 2B in revenue it will be hard for AMZN to continue to hide AWS inside the 'Other' revenue category. Perhaps more importantly, we'll see that AWS continued focus on enterprises is coming to fruition. Large enterprises will give up the ghost and begin adopting AWS en masse.
3. Enterprise IT fails on uptime, service levels, and recognizes the "Service Provider Problem"
We all know that public service providers like Amazon, Google, and Facebook have uptime and service levels that far exceed the average enterprise IT shop. In 2012, enterprise IT will figure out that everything they think they have been doing 'right' is wrong. ITIL will be reexamined, questions will be raised, and hair will be pulled trying to understand how to pivot from inside to outside of their box. This will be a recognition that enterprise IT needs to adopt a 'service provider' model, drive based off of measurable ROI, and truly service internal customer needs through operational excellence. Open source will be seen as a key enabler for this approach (see next).
4. Rise of Open, Open, Open
OpenStack, Open Compute, and other related projects will be sought after to solve the problem that enterprise IT has in competing effectively with external service providers. This will create traction for these projects, but deployment failures, operational problems, and service level failures will continue to plague the enterprise. Attempts to build webscale IaaS clouds will continue to proliferate using open source such as OpenStack, but the structural issues inside the organization that cause enterprise IT to be setup to fail will not be resolved.
5. The Market finally 'gets it': an IaaS cloud isn't about delivering on-demand VMs
Running a real IaaS cloud at scale is hard and takes a lot more than downloading some open source software and installing it on x86 servers. The market finally gets it towards the end of 2012 after continued failures. The market begins to refocus on what matters: operational excellence and tools, production grade solutions, proper process and procedures, lifecycle management, and scale architecture. Enterprise IT is hopefully helped by a new crop of startups with the experience in building and operating true clouds.
Cloud Achieves Security | SP Competition Around QoS | Cloud Brokerage Takes Off | OpenStack Drives Private Clouds | Complex Networking
Ellen Rubin | @ellen_rubin
Founder & VP of Products at CloudSwitch & Top 100 Cloud Blogger
Ellen, an experienced entrepreneur with a proven track record in founding innovative technology companies, was before CloudSwitch a member of the early management team at Netezza (NYSE: NZ), the pioneer and market leader in data warehouse appliances, where she helped grow the company to over $125M in revenues and a successful IPO in 2007.
1. Cloud security stops being a blocker to cloud adoption: Enterprise security teams will reach a détente with IT and business users on guidelines for allowing at least a subset of applications and data to run in the cloud. 2011 reviews of app portfolios and facts on the ground will yield some agreement about moving forward with external clouds in addition to private ones.
2. Value-added services enter the competitive arena: After the past few years of building underlying platforms and placing data centers around the world, it’s time for the cloud service providers to face-off on higher levels of services – competition with be around Quality of Service, but also managed cloud offerings and professional services.
3. Cloud brokerage starts to take shape: The need to manage more than one cloud environment (hybrid models of private, public and multi-cloud) will cause cloud brokerage services to gather steam, simplifying things for enterprises via business and technical rules-based management controls.
4. Private clouds will encompass more than just VMware: In spite of all the talk about private clouds as a “new” phenomenon, up till now these have been primarily VMware environments + some custom workflows/portals on top. In 2012, other more open platforms will start to be viable within the enterprise as an alternative, in particular OpenStack.
5. Complex networking emerges as a critical success factor: Somewhat in the background till now, the need to provide full configurability for networking in the hybrid model is rising in the list of cloud “must-haves.” Many early cloud service models have flattened the network and prevented enterprise control and flexibility. In 2012, new and better options will continue to emerge.
PC Persistence | Big Data | Right Data | Network Services | Enterprise App Stores
Dana Gardner | @Dana_Gardner
Principal Analyst, Interarbor Solutions
Dana Gardner created BriefingsDirect to give his online readers and listeners in-depth and direct access to the brightest thought leaders on IT. A veteran IT analyst, he moderates discussions and interviews get to the meat of the hottest technology topics.
1. The PC remains to primary and most important cloud client. Even as tablets, smartphones, thin clients, zero clients, iOS, Mac OS, Android, and desktop virtualization all gain, they at most represent 20 percent of enterprise clients used for mission critical activities. Therefore the PC is the most important client device for cloud computing for the foreseeable future. Supporting that PC, however, has never been more complex and costly, especially as it it asked to support more of "all of the above." So the IT personnel that support PCs will be a critical weak or strong link, depending, at enterprises in 2012. Time to shore these people up.
2. Big Data gives way to Right Data. The means by which to acquire, store, manage and analyze "Big Data" is in place or soon will be for most enterprises. Some may even look more to cloud services to augment their Big Data activities. The next step, however, is to decide the Right Data to analyze, acquire, access, manage, join, and/or buy. Making wise choices about what data from where and at what cost will be a important strategic chose for enterprises in 2012. The low-lying fruit has been plucked. Now it's time for the hard choices on what data is worth, and what are proper investments in data, especially as part of a greater whole and integrated data lifecycle approach.
3. Big Data meets the IT information morass. If IT as a Service has a future, real-time insights into IT equipment and software in total - across all types of deployments and cloud hybrids - is essential. The architectures and approaches used for Big Data and Complex Event Processing (CEP) will now be brought to bear on the IT operations and systems management problem. By accessing the Right Data from all IT systems, management agents, XMLs dreams, logs, third-party management and each products' outputs and applying Big Data analytics, in real time, than a true and accurate moment by moment snapshot of IT state can finally be acquired at acceptable cost. By overlaying a CEP engine and rules, then finally real automation and real-time resolution and proactive anticipation of performance, security and efficiency can be obtained. The first major strides toward this vision go mainstream in 2012.
4. Network Services Support Cloud Economics. Advanced networks services around cloud, SaaS, and WAN-delivered applications will become essential for cloud trends to advance, and for the costs of reliability to remain competitive. The question is who will provide these services, telcos and carriers, third-party CDNs, public cloud providers, the enterprises themselves? Expect consolidation and bold acquisitions from carriers and public cloud providers to add advanced networks services to their offerings. These serves will be focused on applications performance, governance, security, isolation from public Internet problems, and in providing the full integration of networks for mobile and wireless devices and applications to work in content with legacy enterprise data and applications.
5. App Stores Set Up Shop in Enterprises. In 2012, we’ll see more enterprises put in their own app stores, whereby IT can allow users to take over more of the apps provisioning process. They’re doing it first with mobile apps. But well see it go to the desktop, to the PC, and for traditional apps. Besides getting IT out of the costly application installation and maintenance business, and enabling users to be more productive more quickly, one of the side benefits of app stores is they force organizations to rationalize their application strategy. They are also in better position to begin using cloud and SaaS applications, but user-provisioned and billed based on actual use. This then really starts the process of thinking through your application strategy, what to keep in-house, what to outsource, how to charge for them, how to license them and maybe put in a lifecycle where you can decide what apps are high use and [high] value and others that are going to trail off that you might want to sunset and get rid of altogether.
Infrastructure | Big Data | Bankruptcy | PaaS | Mobile
William Toll | @utollwi
VP, Marketing at Yottaa, Inc.
Passionate about helping small and medium sized businesses succeed on the Web, William was formerly at the leading managed hosting and cloud services provider, NaviSite, and now drives the marketing strategy and implementation for web performance pioneer, Yottaa.
1. Pure play infrastructure providers (think colocation and IaaS hosters) will move further up the stack with pre-packaged rapid Private Cloud deployment pltforms and services. AWS, Rackspace, SoftLayer continue to battle it as these services continue to eat into what was once called managed and dedicated hosting.
2. Big data's growing ease of deployment and managment enables IT to actually mine and analze the data to make real time apps and business decitions. Data integration platforms expand their capability to pull data from across environments - powering growth to companies that leverage their new data and analytics wealth.
3. M&A, final pivots and bankruptcy for 2007-2009's early cloud platforms for cloud automation and cloud/data center tool sets.
4. 2012 is the year of PaaS - growth will be more than just PaaS providers adding multiple distinct environements - we will see the early majority of ISVs transition their apps to PaaS platforms - bypassing IaaS in their first cloud deployments.
5. Mobile will drive an exponential number of data portability and synchronization projects - further moving data off devices to the cloud.
Private Cloud | Cloud Management Tools | Opportunity | Cloud-Hosted Desktops | More -aaS
Mark Hinkle | @mrhinkle
Director, Cloud Computing Community at Citrix Systems
Mark joined Citrix through its acquisition of Cloud.com, the maker of the open source cloud computing management software, CloudStack. He's a long-time open source expert and advocate, and is a co-founder of both the Open Source Management Consortium and the Desktop Linux Consortium. He has served as Editor-in-Chief for both LinuxWorld Magazine and Enterprise Open Source Magazine.
1. More Private Cloud – After spending the last few years toe-dipping in public cloud for point projects, enterprise users will start to utilize private cloud for mission critical and data-sensitive applications. Heavy virtualization users will start augmenting high-availability virtual infrastructure by creating private clouds to reap the benefits of resource pooling, self-service and elasticity on top of their existing virtual infrastructure.
2. The Rise of the Cloud Management Tools - Now that IT operations has the ability to easily spawn 1000s of servers in a cloud environment it only will illustrate the need for tools that can handle the dynamics of increased scale and rapid elasticity. Management tools that are cloud aware and lend themselves to automation become critical. Look to solutions from Opscode, PuppetLabs and enStratus for these needs.
3. Less OPEX, More Opportunity – Much of the cloud conversation has dwelled on the fact that cloud (particularly, public cloud) shifted up-front capital investment (CAPEX) to pay-as-you go operating costs (OPEX). The conversations will shift as users realize the real power of the cloud is increased agility, shorter time to deployment and better efficiency. IT personnel with DevOps experience and understanding who can make this a reality will be in high demand.
4. Cloud Hosted Desktops – What’s good for the server, may be good for the desktop. With the success of Google Docs, DropBox and other mobile productivity tools it sets the stage for greater virtual desktop adoption. Look for more virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI) solutions paired with data-as-a-service allowing users to take their desktop computing everywhere (think iPad) without requiring a wholesale migration to thin client computing.
5. Less Cloud, More -aaS – Cloudwashing has run rampant in 2011 with technology companies running to brand their products as “cloudy”. Informed conversations will see more specificity in their use of cloud terminologies, like Data-as-a-Service, Infrastructure-as-a-Service and Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS). Consumers of the technologies will start becoming savvier as to what the differences, which will help them, sort out the types of technology that best fit their needs.
PaaS | Innovation | Social Networking & Mobile | BigData & Business Analytics | Cloud Security
Larry Carvalho | @larrycincy
Cloud Computing Bootcamp 2011 Instructor @ CloudExpo
Larry runs Robust Cloud, an advisory services company helping various ecosystem players develop a strategy to take advantage of cloud computing. He's won a wide industry-wide following as the 2010-11 Instructor of Cloud Expo's popular Cloud Computing Bootcamp.
1. Platform as a Service gets defined better.
2. Innovation through acquisition by established technology players.
3. Social Networking and Mobile get weaved together as cloud solutions.
4. BigData and Business Analytics gives companies a leg up and becomes mainstream.
5. Cloud security will make significant leap with breakthrough innovations.
Cool Factor | "Split Processing" | Big Data in the Cloud | Industry Matures | Disposable Apps
Jay Fry | @jayfry3
Vice President, Marketing at Stealthy Cloud/Mobility Start-up
Jay was until very recently VP of Strategy & Business Development for Cloud Computing Business at CA Technologies, so many in the industry have an eagle eye on his next choice of company, about which he is being carefully discreet.
1. The consumer convinces the enterprise that cloud is cool. Things like iCloud and Amazon’s Cloud Drive help get your average consumer comfortable with cloud. Consumer acceptance goes a long way to convincing the enterprise that this model is worth investigating – and deploying to. “There might be something to this cloud thing after all….” This, of course, accelerates the adoption of cloud and causes a bunch of changes in the role of IT. It’s all about orchestrating services – and IT’s business cards, mission statements, and org charts change accordingly.
2. Enterprises start to think about “split processing” – where you are and in the cloud. Pressure from mobile devices and the “split browser” idea from things like Amazon Silk lead people to consider doing heavyweight processing in locations other than where the user is interacting. It’s a great model for working with that myriad of mobile devices that have limited processing power (and battery life) that IT is working feverishly to figure out how to support. Somehow.
3. Using Big Data in the cloud becomes as common as, well, data. Given the rise of NoSQL databases and the ecosystem around Hadoop and related approaches, companies begin to understand that collecting and using massive amounts of data isn’t so hard any more. The cloud makes processing all this information possible without having to build the infrastructure permanently in your data center. And it’s pretty useful in making smart business choices.
4. The industry moves on from the “how is the infrastructure built and operated?” conversation and thinks instead about what you can do with cloud. This may sound like wishful thinking, but the nuts and bolts of how to use cloud computing are starting to coalesce sufficiently that fewer discussions need to pick apart the ways to deliver IaaS and the like. The small, smart service providers move up the stack (leave the commodity stuff to Amazon and Rackspace), finding niches for themselves in delivering new service capabilities. Finally, enterprises can have a more useful conversation not about how do we make this work, but about how they our business can benefit? The question now becomes: what new business can come from the cloud model?
5. Applications become disposable. Enterprises will start to leverage the on- demand nature of cloud computing and take a page from the user experience of tablet and smartphone apps. The result: thinking about applications and their deployment less monolithically. The cloud will help enterprises make smarter decisions about how to handle their processing needs, and give them a way to do on-demand app distribution to both customers and employees. This will open up new options for access, even to older legacy applications. Enterprises will also start to evolve applications into smaller functional chunks - like iPad or iPhone apps.
Data Centers Slowing | Cross Cloud Connectivity | Private Clouds | Cloud Computing Consulting Internal Clouds
Michael Sheehan | @HighTechDad
Top 100 Cloud Blogger & Technology Evangelist for GoGrid
Michael is an avid technology pundit. As Technology Evangelist for Cloud Computing Infrastructure provider GoGrid, he keeps his finger firmly on the pulse of what's being thought about and done with the cloud industry-wide.
1. Data Centers Show Slower Growth – what I mean by this is that while data centers will continue to show growth via larger customers (e.g., cloud providers), many companies who currently rack and stack their IT environments within these data centers will shift to an outsourced cloud to replace aging bare metal and optimize their topologies to take advantage of the scalability and controlled costs of cloud computing. Many corporations will transition large portions of their infrastructure to either public clouds or consolidate as private clouds employing a virtualization solution. This consolidation will reduce footprints within the data center and potentially power consumption as VMs will be either driven by larger, more efficient servers or take advantage of the economies of scale of public clouds and their efficiencies. Gartner is predicting that 1 in 5 businesses will own no IT assets at all in the coming years.
2. More Cross Cloud Connectivity & Integration – different clouds offer different advantages and capabilities. Also, to avoid outages, companies will look to linking public, private and in-house infrastructures for better disaster recovery. Partnerships and alliances between various cloud service providers will emerge to thwart off “putting all of your eggs in one basket.” In the past, there were services that helped you manage multiple clouds from within one pane of glass. What we will see is not only that capability with more cloud providers included, but also the ability to migrate infrastructures and configurations. This will become more important in the coming years and services that allow full migrations, connectivity between disparate IT environments and integration of unique services will gain traction.
3. Private Clouds Rise in the Ranks – having gone through a “wait and see period,” Enterprises will now be more accepting of private cloud for their IT environments. Constrained budgets, server sprawl, unused or underutilized hardware environments will cause these corporations to rethink their IT strategies and will cause a shift in executive thinking from the “old school” “server hugging” days to adopting scalable cloud infrastructures.
4. Cloud Computing Consulting & Professional Services Firms will grow dramatically – Clouds are becoming more prevalent and more options, configurations, and services are cluttering the marketplace. To that end, companies will need to understand these options and how it can benefit their organizations. Cloud companies will further develop their own professional services organizations in order to assist companies navigate and craft their custom solutions (unless of course these cloud providers are extremely commoditized and only offer DIY solutions). Consultancies will continue to evolve and new ones form, leveraging and implementing the best practices of multiple cloud services.
5. IT Organizations within Companies will shift to the Cloud – as I mentioned previously, IT departments within companies will now look to the cloud as their primary IT solution for application and infrastructure hosting as opposed to legacy systems (provided the clouds can support unique infrastructure environments). SaaS applications will continue to be rolled out within enterprises as a more efficient and cost effective way to deploy software. And PaaS and IaaS will become buzzwords and action items within conference rooms, in standup meetings and within raised floor environments.
Cloud Stack Market Shakeout | PaaS Growth | Multi-cloud Governance | Global IT Spending Decline
John Treadway | @cloudbzz
Top 100 Cloud Blogger & Director of Cloud Computing Solutions, Unisys
John is the author of CloudBzz (www.cloudbzz.com) and is a senior enterprise technology marketing and business development executive with significant experience across horizontal IT and financial technology markets.
1. The cloud stack market will shake out. UR either huge (VMware, BMC, CA, IBM, HP, VCE), or you're OpenStack. Several others will exit.
2. The PaaS momentum of 2011 will accelerate - that's where the action will be in 2012. It's about the Apps, stupid :)
3. Multi-cloud governance will start to be a mainstream area of focus enabling IT to gain control over their "cloud-sprawl" issues.
4. Global IT spending decline based on economy will change calculus of public vs. private cloud - lack of capex at most companies.
ITSM | Street Commerce | Market Maturity | DaaS | Private Cloud
Scott Stewart | @CIOmatters
Top 100 Cloud Blogger & Research Director at Longhaus Pty Ltd
An experienced CIO, Scott was among the first in Australia to move an entire financial services organization to the cloud. Through this experience he quickly emerged as a thought leader, shedding light on this disruptive transformation and helping business understand and develop the business case for cloud computing.
1. ITSM as a service
Service management, service assurance and security management to become high on the criteria for the discerning CIO. The period of 2009-2011 saw the ‘race’ to get a cloud product to market, but increasingly the demand-side will shift their questioning from “do you have a cloud offering” to: “how well do you run your cloud”. Cloud vendors will need to invest in ITSM-as-a-service offerings to stay competitive.
Because too many vendors are totally reliant on the functionality that comes through from their core technology provider (eg IaaS vendors on VMWare) they will not be well differentiated with their competitors. They will need to turn to service management and service assurance investments to find the differentiation that will be compelling to the CIO. The enterprise CIOs will be asking “what is your investment in ITSM”, “how many dedicated ITSM staff do you have?” and “how many security professionals are employed?”
2. Cloud-based ‘street commerce’
The rapid adoption of mobility and the increased deployment of the NFC chip will see the rapid start of the ‘street commerce’ phenomenon. The digital media industry will drive the adoption of NFC equipped interactive signage and displays allowing users to interact with displays, signs and shop fronts using smartphones. The experience will be enhanced by further leveraging of Bluetooth that will allow for innovations with proximity aware interactions as well as transparent LCDs to animate shop fronts and bus shelters.
The cloud-based smartphone wallet will take off and the focus will increase for ‘information personalisation’. (Imagine walking up to a shop front late at night and it says “Hello Jeremy we having your favourite running shoes on special, just tap the picture with your smartphone to buy now”). As a result of the demand for this level of interaction Mobility-centric PaaS will be a hot market item, In Australia there is a lot of interest in providers of this specialised area. (check out www.blinkmobile.com.au). As the APAC region is currently leading the world in adoption of smartphones and mobility there will be considerable investment in street commerce in this region.
3. Maturing of the cloud marketing message and the settling down of the hype
Cloud marketing begins to differentiate its message recognising that the ‘go to the cloud’ messaging for enterprises is vastly different to the message for start-ups, web shops, development shops and small business. Whilst the enterprise will move individual workloads to the cloud, the more large scale cloud adoption by enterprises will continue to slow as the realization that the scale of these transformations will have deep impacts on business models, processes and people.
The hype such as ‘everything will be in the cloud by 2015’ will be replaced with ‘Cloud is here and stay and will be more about a business transformation over the next 5+ years’. This will lead to an increased focus on professional services as the cloud adoption process for the enterprise becomes a discussion on long-term ‘roadmap’ and slow and safe transitions touching everything from project management, business process improvement, Enterprise Architecture and Business Analysis. In Australia the data clearly shows that enterprise adoption of cloud in the enterprise has slowed and the cloud bubble is bursting in this space.
4. Desktop-as-a-service increasingly popular
The low hanging fruit for many CIOs will be to adopt the Desktop-as-a-service offering to deal with the very expensive and resource hungry provisioning of desktops. These multi-tenanted offerings will deliver a standard operating environment through a cloud based virtualized desktop as a service and will include network links, email, productivity suites, document management and identity management.
The issue for the CIO around “Bring your own device” will be largely solved as the virtualised desktop strategies will be extended to include providing every device access to the desktop- as-a-service. Also many Australian CIOs having to grapple with the issue of delivering remote access to global offices will find that the cloud based desktops will solve a lot of their issues. The competition in this space will be around providing these services as a PER USER PER MONTH pricing model and the use of user profiles to offer different cost choices. The cost saves will be compelling for the CIO especially in the 500 to 2000 seat sized organisations.
5. Private cloud to dominate
IT Managers in the enterprise will find plenty of reasons to support a shift to a private cloud model and the vendors will line up to provide the capability. Whether many of these models are actually cloud will be questioned as they will resemble traditional hosting and managed services models of single instances of infrastructure serving a single enterprise. . The vendors will make money enabling these private ‘cloud’ strategies and in so doing will try attempt to stretch the definition of multi-tenant to mean “if more than one user logs onto a server then we have a multi-tenant private cloud”.
The reasons that IT managers will drive for private cloud adoption will be issues of data sovereignty, privacy regulations, security concerns – on the back of high profile cloud outages. Underpinning the move to private cloud will be the existing investment made by enterprises in massive infrastructures making it difficult for enterprises to deal with how they transition out of these models. Understandably in some cases job protectionism is also at play with the push to manage internal private ‘clouds’. In time the larger enterprises will fail to realise the promised economies of scale with these models and there will be a shift to public cloud portability so that the enterprises can exploit the dynamics of data centre contestability and vendor price arbitrage for utilities such as storage and compute.