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MILWAUKEE, Nov. 9, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) today reported a net loss for the quarter ended September 30, 2012 of $246.9 million, compared with a net loss of $165.2 million for the same quarter a year ago. Diluted loss per share was $1.22 for the quarter ending September 30, 2012, compared to diluted loss per share of $0.82 for the same quarter a year ago. The net loss for the first nine months of 2012 was $540.4 million compared with a net loss of $350.6 million for the same period last year.
Total revenues for the third quarter were $306.2 million, compared with $337.2 million in the third quarter last year. Net premiums written for the quarter were $263.5 million, compared with $255.7 million for the same period last year. Realized gains in the third quarter of 2012 were $6.2 million compared to $11.4 million for the same period last year.
New insurance written in the third quarter was $7.0 billion, compared to $3.9 billion in the third quarter of 2011. In addition, the Home Affordable Refinance Program accounted for $3.7 billion of insurance that is not included in the new insurance written total due to these transactions being treated as a modification of the coverage on existing insurance in force compared to $0.6 billion in the third quarter of 2011. New insurance written for the first nine months of 2012 was $17.1 billion compared to $10.0 billion for the same period last year. HARP activity for the first nine months of 2012 totaled $7.7 billion compared to $2.1 billion in the first nine months of 2011. Persistency, or the percentage of insurance remaining in force from one year prior, was 80.2 percent at September 30, 2012, compared with 82.9 percent at December 31, 2011, and 83.7 percent at September 30, 2011.
As of September 30, 2012, MGIC's primary insurance in force was $164.9 billion, compared with $172.9 billion at December 31, 2011, and $179.0 billion at September 30, 2011. The fair value of MGIC Investment Corporation's investment portfolio, cash and cash equivalents was $5.7 billion at September 30, 2012, compared with $6.8 billion at December 31, 2011, and $7.3 billion at September 30, 2011.
At September 30, 2012, the percentage of loans that were delinquent, excluding bulk loans, was 12.34 percent, compared with 13.79 percent at December 31, 2011, and 13.49 percent at September 30, 2011. Including bulk loans, the percentage of loans that were delinquent at September 30, 2012 was 14.51 percent, compared to 16.11 percent at December 31, 2011, and 15.85 percent at September 30, 2011.
Losses incurred, which does not include any estimated loss related to a resolution of the Freddie Mac dispute, in the third quarter were $490.1 million up from $462.7 million reported for the same period last year primarily due to an increase in the claim rate. Net underwriting and other expenses were $50.7 million in the third quarter as compared to $52.5 million reported for the same period last year.
Conference Call and Webcast Details
MGIC Investment Corporation will hold a conference call today, November 9, 2012, at 10 a.m. ET to allow securities analysts and shareholders the opportunity to hear management discuss the company's quarterly results. The conference call number is 1-866-847-7859. The call is being webcast and can be accessed at the company's website at http://mtg.mgic.com/. The webcast is also being distributed over CCBN's Investor Distribution Network to both institutional and individual investors. Investors can listen to the call through CCBN's individual investor center at http://www.companyboardroom.com/ or by visiting any of the investor sites in CCBN's Individual Investor Network. The webcast will be available for replay on the company's website through December 9, 2012 under Investor Information.
About MGIC
MGIC (www.mgic.com), the principal subsidiary of MGIC Investment Corporation, is the nation's largest private mortgage insurer as measured by $164.9 billion primary insurance in force covering 1.0 million mortgages as of September 30, 2012. MGIC serves lenders throughout the United States, Puerto Rico, and other locations helping families achieve homeownership sooner by making affordable low-down-payment mortgages a reality.
This press release, which includes certain additional statistical and other information, including non-GAAP financial information and a supplement that contains various portfolio statistics are both available on the Company's website at http://mtg.mgic.com/ under Investor Information, Press Releases or Presentations/Webcasts.
From time to time MGIC Investment Corporation releases important information via postings on its corporate website without making any other disclosure and intends to continue to do so in the future. Investors and other interested parties are encouraged to enroll to receive automatic email alerts and Really Simple Syndication (RSS) feeds regarding new postings. Enrollment information can be found at http://mtg.mgic.com under Investor Information.
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
Three Months Ended September 30,
Nine Months Ended September 30,
2012
2011
2012
2011
(Unaudited)
(In thousands, except per share data)
Net premiums written
$ 263,505
$ 255,745
$ 757,096
$ 800,607
Net premiums earned
$ 266,432
$ 275,094
$ 771,465
$ 848,094
Investment income
30,394
48,898
99,980
160,931
Realized gains, net
6,184
11,405
110,356
38,900
Total other-than-temporary impairment losses
-
(253)
(339)
(253)
Portion of loss recognized in other comprehensive
income (loss), before taxes
-
-
-
-
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings
-
(253)
(339)
(253)
Other revenue
3,209
2,025
25,530
9,617
Total revenues
306,219
337,169
1,006,992
1,057,289
Losses and expenses:
Losses incurred
490,121
462,654
1,378,617
1,232,637
Change in premium deficiency reserve
(9,144)
(12,388)
(50,685)
(32,441)
Underwriting and other expenses, net
50,678
52,477
149,931
164,070
Interest expense
24,478
25,761
74,017
78,129
Total losses and expenses
556,133
528,504
1,551,880
1,442,395
Loss before tax
(249,914)
(191,335)
(544,888)
(385,106)
Benefit from income taxes
(2,972)
(26,130)
(4,500)
(34,508)
Net Loss
$ (246,942)
$ (165,205)
$ (540,388)
$ (350,598)
Diluted weighted average common shares outstanding
202,014
201,109
201,851
200,983
Diluted loss per share
$ (1.22)
$ (0.82)
$ (2.68)
$ (1.74)
NOTE: See "Certain Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for diluted earnings per share contribution from realized gains and losses.
MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET AS OF
September 30,
December 31,
September 30,
2012
2011
2011
(Unaudited)
(In thousands, except per share data)
ASSETS
Investments (1)
$ 4,926,764
$ 5,823,647
$ 6,458,220
Cash and cash equivalents
730,404
995,799
866,614
Reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves (2)
117,859
154,607
166,874
Prepaid reinsurance premiums
1,174
1,617
1,782
Home office and equipment, net
26,891
28,145
28,527
Deferred insurance policy acquisition costs
10,451
7,505
7,696
Other assets
195,347
204,910
217,590
$ 6,008,890
$ 7,216,230
$ 7,747,303
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Liabilities:
Loss reserves (2)
$ 4,004,001
$ 4,557,512
$ 4,791,560
Unearned premiums
140,137
154,866
166,703
Premium deficiency reserve
84,132
134,817
146,525
Senior notes
99,891
170,515
244,259
Convertible senior notes
345,000
345,000
345,000
Convertible junior debentures
370,164
344,422
336,694
Other liabilities
297,589
312,283
327,737
Total liabilities
5,340,914
6,019,415
6,358,478
Shareholders' equity
667,976
1,196,815
1,388,825
$ 6,008,890
$ 7,216,230
$ 7,747,303
Book value per share (3)
$ 3.31
$ 5.95
$ 6.90
(1) Investments include net unrealized gains on securities
130,330
120,087
199,779
(2) Loss reserves, net of reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves
3,886,142
4,402,905
4,624,686
(3) Shares outstanding
202,032
201,172
201,172
CERTAIN NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
Three Months Ended September 30,
Nine Months Ended September 30,
2012
2011
2012
2011
(Unaudited)
(In thousands, except per share data)
Diluted earnings per share contribution from realized gains (losses):
Realized gains and impairment losses
$ 6,184
$ 11,152
$ 110,017
$ 38,647
Income taxes at 35% (1)
-
-
-
-
After tax realized gains
6,184
11,152
110,017
38,647
Weighted average shares
202,014
201,109
201,851
200,983
Diluted EPS contribution from realized gains and
impairment losses
$ 0.03
$ 0.06
$ 0.55
$ 0.19
(1)
Due to the establishment of a valuation allowance, income taxes provided are not currently affected by realized gains or losses.
Management believes the diluted earnings per share contribution from realized gains or losses provides useful information to investors because it shows the after-tax effect of these items, which can be discretionary.
Additional Information
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
New primary insurance written (NIW) (billions)
$ 3.1
$ 3.9
$ 4.2
$ 4.2
$ 5.9
$ 7.0
New primary risk written (billions)
$ 0.8
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.0
$ 1.5
$ 1.8
Product mix as a % of primary flow NIW
>95% LTVs
2%
2%
2%
2%
3%
3%
ARMs
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Refinances
16%
20%
39%
42%
32%
32%
Primary Insurance In Force (IIF) (billions) (1)
$ 182.4
$ 179.0
$ 172.9
$ 169.0
$ 166.7
$ 164.9
Flow
$ 160.9
$ 158.3
$ 153.5
$ 150.3
$ 148.6
$ 147.5
Bulk
$ 21.5
$ 20.7
$ 19.4
$ 18.7
$ 18.1
$ 17.4
Prime (620 & >)
$ 153.3
$ 150.9
$ 146.3
$ 143.5
$ 142.3
$ 141.7
A minus (575 - 619)
$ 10.4
$ 10.1
$ 9.7
$ 9.3
$ 8.9
$ 8.5
Sub-Prime (< 575)
$ 2.7
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.5
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
$ 16.0
$ 15.3
$ 14.3
$ 13.7
$ 13.1
$ 12.4
Annual Persistency
83.3%
83.7%
82.9%
82.2%
81.4%
80.2%
Primary Risk In Force (RIF) (billions) (1)
$ 46.8
$ 46.0
$ 44.5
$ 43.5
$ 42.9
$ 42.5
Prime (620 & >)
$ 38.9
$ 38.3
$ 37.2
$ 36.5
$ 36.2
$ 36.1
A minus (575 - 619)
$ 2.8
$ 2.7
$ 2.6
$ 2.6
$ 2.4
$ 2.3
Sub-Prime (< 575)
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.8
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
$ 0.7
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
$ 4.3
$ 4.2
$ 3.9
$ 3.7
$ 3.6
$ 3.4
RIF by FICO
FICO 620 & >
91.5%
91.5%
91.5%
91.7%
91.9%
92.1%
FICO 575 - 619
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.4%
6.3%
6.1%
FICO < 575
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
Average Coverage Ratio (RIF/IIF) (1)
Total
25.6%
25.7%
25.7%
25.7%
25.8%
25.8%
Prime (620 & >)
25.3%
25.4%
25.4%
25.4%
25.5%
25.5%
A minus (575 - 619)
27.1%
27.2%
27.3%
27.3%
27.4%
27.4%
Sub-Prime (< 575)
28.8%
28.8%
28.9%
28.9%
28.9%
29.0%
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
27.1%
27.3%
27.2%
27.3%
27.2%
27.2%
Average Loan Size (thousands) (1)
Total IIF
$ 156.22
$ 156.79
$ 158.59
$ 158.89
$ 159.59
$ 160.70
Flow
$ 155.13
$ 155.72
$ 157.87
$ 158.28
$ 159.20
$ 160.62
Bulk
$ 164.89
$ 165.42
$ 164.55
$ 163.99
$ 162.80
$ 161.38
Prime (620 & >)
$ 156.03
$ 156.55
$ 158.87
$ 159.29
$ 160.26
$ 161.69
A minus (575 - 619)
$ 129.57
$ 130.60
$ 130.70
$ 130.37
$ 129.86
$ 129.43
Sub-Prime (< 575)
$ 116.73
$ 120.73
$ 121.13
$ 120.98
$ 120.65
$ 120.01
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
$ 195.71
$ 196.26
$ 194.06
$ 193.54
$ 192.23
$ 191.18
Primary IIF - # of loans (1)
1,167,476
1,141,442
1,090,086
1,063,797
1,044,342
1,026,200
Prime (620 & >)
982,658
964,011
921,112
901,300
887,967
875,953
A minus (575 - 619)
80,231
77,548
74,036
71,250
68,538
65,878
Sub-Prime (< 575)
22,958
22,252
21,391
20,633
20,003
19,371
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
81,629
77,631
73,547
70,614
67,834
64,998
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Primary IIF - Delinquent Roll Forward - # of Loans
Beginning Delinquent Inventory
195,885
184,452
180,894
175,639
160,473
153,990
Plus: New Notices
39,972
44,342
41,796
34,781
32,241
34,432
Less: Cures
(35,832)
(34,335)
(33,837)
(37,144)
(26,368)
(27,384)
Less: Paids (including those charged to a deductible or captive)
(13,553)
(12,033)
(12,086)
(11,909)
(11,738)
(11,344)
Less: Rescissions and denials (6)
(2,020)
(1,532)
(1,128)
(894)
(618)
(809)
Ending Delinquent Inventory
184,452
180,894
175,639
160,473
153,990
148,885
Primary claim received inventory included in ending delinquent inventory (6)
14,504
13,799
12,610
12,758
13,421
12,508
Composition of Cures
Reported delinquent and cured intraquarter
8,996
10,240
9,333
11,353
7,104
8,097
Number of payments delinquent prior to cure
3 payments or less
14,457
12,663
13,883
16,523
11,875
10,593
4-11 payments
7,952
6,840
6,298
6,277
5,349
5,433
12 payments or more
4,427
4,592
4,323
2,991
2,040
3,261
Total Cures in Quarter
35,832
34,335
33,837
37,144
26,368
27,384
Composition of Paids
Number of payments delinquent at time of claim payment
3 payments or less
26
55
38
44
50
71
4-11 payments
1,848
1,317
1,600
1,776
1,840
1,771
12 payments or more
11,679
10,661
10,448
10,089
9,848
9,502
Total Paids in Quarter
13,553
12,033
12,086
11,909
11,738
11,344
Aging of Primary Delinquent Inventory
Consecutive months in default
3 months or less
30,107
16%
33,167
18%
31,456
18%
22,516
14%
24,488
16%
25,593
17%
4-11 months
48,148
26%
45,110
25%
46,352
26%
45,552
28%
38,400
25%
35,029
24%
12 months or more
106,197
58%
102,617
57%
97,831
56%
92,405
58%
91,102
59%
88,263
59%
Number of payments delinquent
3 payments or less
40,968
22%
43,312
24%
42,804
24%
33,579
21%
33,677
22%
35,130
24%
4-11 payments
51,523
28%
47,929
26%
47,864
27%
45,539
28%
39,744
26%
36,359
24%
12 payments or more
91,961
50%
89,653
50%
84,971
49%
81,355
51%
80,569
52%
77,396
52%
Primary IIF - # of Delinquent Loans (1)
184,452
180,894
175,639
160,473
153,990
148,885
Flow
139,032
137,084
134,101
121,959
116,798
113,339
Bulk
45,420
43,810
41,538
38,514
37,192
35,546
Prime (620 & >)
115,980
114,828
112,403
102,884
98,447
95,517
A minus (575 - 619)
26,878
26,600
25,989
23,002
22,428
21,865
Sub-Prime (< 575)
9,725
9,562
9,326
8,434
8,175
7,999
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
31,869
29,904
27,921
26,153
24,940
23,504
Primary IIF Delinquency Rates (1)
15.80%
15.85%
16.11%
15.09%
14.75%
14.51%
Flow
13.40%
13.49%
13.79%
12.84%
12.51%
12.34%
Bulk
34.91%
35.02%
35.33%
33.82%
33.50%
32.97%
Prime (620 & >)
11.80%
11.91%
12.20%
11.42%
11.09%
10.90%
A minus (575 - 619)
33.50%
34.30%
35.10%
32.28%
32.72%
33.19%
Sub-Prime (< 575)
42.36%
42.97%
43.60%
40.88%
40.87%
41.29%
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
39.04%
38.52%
37.96%
37.04%
36.77%
36.16%
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Reserves
Primary
Direct Loss Reserves (millions)
$ 4,504
$ 4,403
$ 4,249
$ 3,985
$ 3,934
$ 3,855
Average Direct Reserve Per Default
$ 24,416
$ 24,342
$ 24,193
$ 24,835
$ 25,547
$ 25,890
Pool
Direct Loss Reserves (millions)
$ 570
$ 379
$ 299
$ 216
$ 168
$ 144
Ending Delinquent Inventory
36,552
33,792
32,971
26,601
25,178
9,337
(7)
Pool claim received inventory included in ending delinquent inventory
1,836
1,345
1,398
893
1,154
255
Other Gross Reserves (millions) (5)
$ 9
$ 10
$ 10
$ 8
$ 7
$ 5
Net Paid Claims (millions) (1) (2)
$ 818
$ 751
$ 704
$ 673
$ 636
$ 587
Flow
$ 562
$ 475
$ 484
$ 459
$ 466
$ 430
Bulk
$ 115
$ 137
$ 135
$ 124
$ 113
$ 115
Pool - with aggregate loss limits
$ 167
$ 138
$ 90
$ 95
$ 64
$ 42
Pool - without aggregate loss limits
$ 3
$ 6
$ 4
$ 4
$ 6
$ 7
Reinsurance
$ (44)
$ (20)
$ (28)
$ (24)
$ (25)
$ (21)
Other (5)
$ 15
$ 15
$ 19
$ 15
$ 12
$ 14
Reinsurance terminations (2)
$ (2)
$ (36)
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
Prime (620 & >)
$ 472
$ 419
$ 430
$ 408
$ 402
$ 378
A minus (575 - 619)
$ 77
$ 68
$ 62
$ 64
$ 63
$ 57
Sub-Prime (< 575)
$ 20
$ 17
$ 14
$ 18
$ 18
$ 16
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
$ 108
$ 108
$ 113
$ 93
$ 96
$ 94
Primary Average Claim Payment (thousands) (1)
$ 49.9
$ 50.9
$ 51.1
$ 48.9
$ 49.3
$ 48.0
Flow
$ 47.9
$ 48.0
$ 48.3
$ 46.2
$ 46.8
$ 44.8
Bulk
$ 62.3
$ 64.2
$ 64.5
$ 62.6
$ 63.2
$ 65.4
Prime (620 & >)
$ 48.3
$ 49.5
$ 49.6
$ 47.4
$ 47.6
$ 45.9
A minus (575 - 619)
$ 46.0
$ 46.1
$ 44.3
$ 44.5
$ 44.6
$ 42.5
Sub-Prime (< 575)
$ 46.7
$ 43.9
$ 40.7
$ 44.9
$ 44.4
$ 46.2
Reduced Doc (All FICOs)
$ 63.0
$ 63.9
$ 66.8
$ 62.6
$ 64.3
$ 65.6
Risk sharing Arrangements - Flow Only
% insurance inforce subject to risk sharing
16.8%
14.4%
13.8%
13.1%
12.7%
12.2%
% Quarterly NIW subject to risk sharing
4.8%
5.6%
5.3%
5.4%
5.6%
5.6%
Premium ceded (millions)
$ 13.3
$ 11.4
$ 9.9
$ 9.2
$ 8.7
$ 8.2
Captive trust fund assets (millions) (2)
$ 451
$ 392
$ 386
$ 371
$ 360
$ 350
Captive Reinsurance Ceded Losses Incurred - Flow Only (millions)
$ 12.9
$ 17.4
$ 15.5
$ 13.5
$ 12.2
$ 12.2
Active excess of Loss
Book Year
2005
$ 2.3
$ 4.4
$ 3.5
$ 2.5
$ 3.2
$ 2.2
2006
$ 0.7
$ 1.6
$ 1.5
$ 1.5
$ 0.8
$ 0.5
2007
$ 0.7
$ 0.9
$ 0.8
$ 0.6
$ 0.8
$ 0.2
2008
$ 2.2
$ 2.3
$ 1.8
$ 1.9
$ 1.5
$ 0.3
Active quota Share
Book Year
2005
$ 1.3
$ 1.0
$ 1.4
$ 1.1
$ 1.2
$ 1.6
2006
$ 1.4
$ 1.2
$ 1.5
$ 1.2
$ 1.0
$ 1.5
2007
$ 2.5
$ 4.2
$ 4.3
$ 3.7
$ 3.4
$ 5.2
2008
$ 1.5
$ 1.1
$ 0.6
$ 0.9
$ 0.3
$ 0.6
2009
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
$ 0.1
$ -
$ -
2010
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 0.1
Terminated agreements
$ 0.3
$ 0.7
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Direct Pool RIF (millions)
With aggregate loss limits
$ 905
$ 770
$ 674
$ 569
$ 508
$ 469
Without aggregate loss limits
$ 1,324
$ 1,260
$ 1,177
$ 1,092
$ 1,024
$ 945
Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation - Risk to Capital
20.4:1
22.2:1
20.3:1
20.3:1
27.8:1
31.5:1
(3)
Combined Insurance Companies - Risk to Capital
23.4:1
24.0:1
22.2:1
22.2:1
30.0:1
34.1:1
(3)
GAAP loss ratio (insurance operations only) (4)
161.6%
168.2%
174.8%
128.5%
227.3%
184.0%
GAAP underwriting expense ratio (insurance operations only)
16.5%
16.4%
14.9%
16.7%
16.6%
13.6%
Note: The FICO credit score for a loan with multiple borrowers is the lowest of the borrowers' "decision FICO scores." A borrower's "decision FICO score" is determined as follows: if there are three FICO scores available, the middle FICO score is used; if two FICO scores are available, the lower of the two is used; if only one FICO score is available, it is used.
Note: The results of our operations in Australia are included in the financial statements in this document but the additional information in this document does not include our Australian operations, unless otherwise noted, which are immaterial.
(1) In accordance with industry practice, loans approved by GSE and other automated underwriting (AU) systems under "doc waiver" programs that do not require verification of borrower income are classified by MGIC as "full doc." Based in part on information provided by the GSEs, MGIC estimates full doc loans of this type were approximately 4% of 2007 NIW. Information for other periods is not available. MGIC understands these AU systems grant such doc waivers for loans they judge to have higher credit quality. MGIC also understands that the GSEs terminated their "doc waiver" programs in the second half of 2008. Reduced documentation loans only appear in the reduced documentation category and do not appear in any of the other categories.
(2) Net paid claims, as presented, does not include amounts received in conjunction with termination of reinsurance agreements. In a termination, the agreement is cancelled, with no future premium ceded and funds for any incurred but unpaid losses transferred to us. The transferred funds result in an increase in the investment portfolio (including cash and cash equivalents) and there is a corresponding decrease in reinsurance recoverable on loss reserves. This results in an increase in net loss reserves, which is offset by a decrease in net losses paid.
(3) Preliminary
(4) As calculated, does not reflect any effects due to premium deficiency.
(5) Includes Australian operations
(6) Refer to our risk factor titled "Our losses could increase if rescission rates decrease faster than we are projecting, we do not prevail in proceedings challenging whether our rescissions were proper or we enter into material resolution arrangements" in our Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 9, 2012 for information about our suspension of certain rescissions and the number of rescissions suspended as of September 30, 2012.
(7) During the third quarter of 2012, approximately 15,600 pool notices were removed from the pool notice inventory due to the exhaustion of the aggregate loss on a pool policy we have with Freddie Mac. See our risk factor titled "We are defendants in private and government litigation and are subject to the risk of additional private litigation, government litigation and regulatory proceedings in the future" in our Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 9, 2012 for a discussion of our interpretation of the appropriate aggregate loss.
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