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The Wireless, Profitless Internet
The Wireless, Profitless Internet

Telcos in Europe are finding it enormously difficult to generate revenues from their massive technological investment in the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS). In some countries, experts are predicting that it might take up to 10 years for the benefits of UMTS technology to be rolled out to telco subscribers.

In a recent report compiled by the former Director of Development for Denmark's largest carrier, Tele Danmark, UMTS mobile telephony, while poised to supersede the present low-speed GSM standard the moment GSM is scrapped, will not recoup for any of the carriers investing in it the massive sums they've devoted to it. Which in turn may slow down, or even halt, the progress in Europe of the long-awaited "wireless Internet."

Professor Ole Lauridsen, the author of the report in his present capacity as Corporate Director of Research for GN Nettest, argues that UMTS is having a very difficult birth. In order to get people to switch from GSM it really needs right from the start to offer something completely different; yet there's not a single service on the horizon at this time that can be relied upon to make UMTS a surefire success.

This means, according to Professor Lauridsen, that for as long maybe as the next two to three years we can't look forward to UMTS bringing users anything that GSM can't already do. TDC Mobile, for example, the arm of Tele Danmark responsible for UMTS rollout, is approaching UMTS as more of a complement to, than a replacement for, GSM.

Strategic Influence on the UMTS Standard
Lauridsen was the driving force behind Tele Danmark's entire UMTS strategy, until SBC, the carrier's majority shareholder, let him go about a year ago along with the entire development division. Since then he has remained on various expert panels within the European Union's ambitious technology program, "Information Society Technologies" and continues to exert considerable influence on the UMTS standard, which is evolving all the time.

Within the European Union (EU) in Brussels, responsibility for the technology program and for the UMTS standard falls to the Directorate-General for the Information Society, where the Director-General, Robert Verrue, has been sounding a note of warning recently about how the great uncertainty about the UMTS standard risks having uncomfortable repercussions on European telcos.

Uncertainty Threatens the Telcos' Fortunes
"Such uncertainty," he has said, "could influence the timing of UMTS rollout, and may even affect the viability of individual telecommunications companies." This statement has caused the top leadership of the EU to join the ranks of those now beginning to question the likelihood of the European carriers ever making an economic success of their ambitious UMTS plans.

"The carriers have bought a pig in a poke," says the Director of the Center for Tele-Information at the Technical University of Denmark, Knud Erik Skouby. "No one yet knows anything about UMTS, which is somewhat disconcerting when you consider the size of the sums spent in order to obtain UMTS (or 3G, for third-generation) licenses." Skouby notes that carriers in the UK and Germany, in particular, having paid huge sums for the licenses that permit them to offer a UMTS network, will each need to make their UTMS-net pay handsomely. And Norway and Sweden have recently followed suit, so the same goes for them too.

Niagara Falls vs A Dripping Tap
The Director of the Center for Personal Communication at Denmark's Aalborg University, Professor Joern Bach Andersen, reiterates the risky nature of UMTS investments and points out that it's just plain unrealistic to expect the wireless Internet, even with UMTS, ever to compete in terms of transmission speed with the broadband, wired Net. Especially since, both at work and at home, it's the latter that people are going to have most access to.

"With access to wired broadband, a Niagara Falls of capacity, why would anyone choose the mere dripping tap of the wireless Internet?" asks Professor Andersen.

About Kim Schaumann
Kim Schaumann writes regularly for the leading
Danish financial daily, Borsen.

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I need to get your help in my thesis matter about UMTS.
Could you help me for university thesis(UMTS Network).

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serkan serter wrote: I need to get your help in my thesis matter about UMTS. Could you help me for university thesis(UMTS Network).
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