As far as anyone outside the principals knows, Oracle and PeopleSoft have yet to meet outside the courtroom and seem to using their testimony to negotiate.

Sanford Bernstein analyst Charles Di Bona remind folks today that it was only sheer speculation that Oracle would better the offer on the table that had pushed PeopleSoft's stock price over $21.

He cautioned investors that "the raw economics of the deal as purely a financial transaction for Oracle seem to speak as much to the deal being completed at or below $21 a share or even not being completed at all, as to any increase in the offer."

Di Bona is not impressed with PeopleSoft's asset value, pointing to the "poor market" for applications and the company's "inability to deliver" on its acquisition of JD Edwards "as promised."

Catz also cited PeopleSoft's performance this year to the point of saying it was no longer credible as a standalone entity.

PeopleSoft stopped issuing guidance when it said during the summer that it wouldn't make its numbers.
 

"If there's an indication that they would pay what we consider to be the right price, and there's a possibility that we could close the transaction quickly, I'm open to discussions with Oracle."

With these words, PeopleSoft director Steven Goldby yesterday confirmed in the minds of many that last week's dismissal by the PeopleSoft board of CEO Craig Conway heralded a dramatic change of approach by PeopleSoft in the long-running saga of the Oracle-PeopleSoft takeover battle.  

Goldby was speaking in the Delaware Chancery Court in Wilmington, Delaware.

For anyone who's been asleep in a cave for the past 16 months, we bring here a quick reprise of the story so far, from its beginnings in 2003 to the latest twists in the bid worth (currently) $7.7 billion.

2004

October 5, 2004
Oracle Seeks to Revoke PeopleSoft's Poison Pills
The two-week trial in the Delaware Chancery Court over PeopleSoft's anti-takeover defenses begins with a bang, with PeopleSoft director Steven Goldby testifying that CEO Craig Conway was fired over concerns about his "situational ethics."

October 1, 2004 
PeopleSoft "Terminates" CEO Conway; Oracle Takeover Nearer?
Craig Conway,  president and chief executive of PeopleSoft, is terminated by the PeopleSoft board. Since Conway is identified with the battle to fend off would-be suitor Oracle, the industry is rife with speculation that this clears the way once and for all for an PeopleSoft takeover by Oracle.

September 25, 2004
PeopleSoft Watch: EC Won't Block Oracle Takeover
The European Commission, according to the Financial Times, won't try to block the takeover.

September 20, 2004
PeopleSoft Hangs Tough, Refuses to Meet Oracle PeopleSoft continues to refuse to meet with its unwanted suitor Oracle, in spite of the Justice Department decision.

September 10, 2004
Oracle Wins 
US District Court rules against the Justice Department's attempt to stop Oracle from acquiring PeopleSoft.

July 30, 2004
PeopleSoft Quarter Sucks
PeopleSoft profits drop nearly 70% in the second quarter, worse than the revised guidance it had issued a few weeks previously.

July 16, 2004
Oracle Persists 
Oracle extends its tender offer for PeopleSoft yet again - this time till August 27

June 25, 2004
Oracle & the Candy Store Window
According to videotaped testimony taken from Oracle CFO Jeff Henley and Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and shown at the Oracle-PeopleSoft trial, Oracle also thought about taking a run at Lawson Software, JD Edwards, BEA, Siebel Systems, Business Objects, Documentum, and Sybase.

June 18, 2004
Oracle's Numbers Explain Why It Wants PeopleSoft
Oracle's fiscal fourth-quarter results show why it wants PeopleSoft bad enough to take on the Justice Department in court: its applications business "sucks," reports Maureen O'Gara.

May 28, 2004
P'Soft to Oracle: What Is It about 'NO!' You Don't Understand?
PeopleSoft's board rejects Oracle's revised bid of $21 a share, or roughly $7.7 billion, calling "inadequate"

March 19, 2004
EU Has Trouble Swallowing Oracle-PeopleSoft Merger
If, as PeopleSoft claim, Oracle's real reason behind its hostile takeover attempt is just to discombobulate PeopleSoft, then the Europeans hand Oracle another excuse to gracefully abandon the field. But it doesn't.

March 12, 2004
Oracle Eyes Other Acquisitions - Including BEA?
Faced with a tough, if not losing, battle for PeopleSoft, say that they were considering other acquisitions.

March 5, 2004
PeopleSoft Declares for Red Hat
PeopleSoft announces it will put its EnterpriseOne 8.10 software - covering Human Capital, Supply Chain, Supplier Relationship, Financial, Asset Lifecycle and Project Management applications - on Red Hat because of customer demand.

February 27, 2004
DOJ Sues to Stop Oracle; Oracle to Fight
The Department of Justice files suit to block Oracle's $9.4 billion hostile offer for PeopleSoft because it says it would result in "higher prices, less innovation and fewer choices."

February 20, 2004
PeopleSoft User Group Willing to Listen to Oracle
Recently installed Oracle president Chuck Phillips says he'll pitch the blessings of an Oracle-PeopleSoft marriage to the old JD Edwards user group Quest Direct, which invites both Oracle and PeopleSoft to explain themselves. PeopleSoft says it will give it a pass.

February 13, 2004
Oracle Bid for PeopleSoft on Life Support
PeopleSoft says Justice Department investigators has told it the DOJ is going to recommend to antitrust boss Hugh Pate that the agency blocks Oracle's hostile bid to acquire PeopleSoft.

February 6, 2004
"OK, $9.4 Billion Cash But Not a Penny More"
Oracle raises its bid from $19.50 to $26 a share or from $7.1 billion to $9.4 billion cash. Larry Ellison swears the 33% sweetener is absolutely positively his final offer.

January 23, 2004
DOJ To Quash Oracle's PeopleSoft Scheme, Says WSJ
The Justice Department moves closer to a decision to block Oracle's hostile bid.

January 9, 2004
Oracle Lacks Direction: Butler
Oracle lacks direction, says Butler Group report. The market for managing the nice neat structured data that fits in nice neat relational rows and columns is pretty well saturated, it says, while 80% of the data people handle, all the unstructured stuff, doesn't fit in those nice neat rows and columns and Oracle is doing absolutely nothing about it.

January 9, 2004
Oracle Still Lusts after PeopleSoft
Oracle stages a conference to clear up "misconceptions in the market" and says it hasn't been dissuaded from the PeopleSoft acquisition by the length of time the process is taking - but that it won't pay any unreasonable price either.

2003

November 21, 2003
EC to Ponder Oracle-PeopleSoft Merger
The European Commission begins its investigation and says it could take four months for it to turn over the notion of Oracle acquiring PeopleSoft in a hostile bid.

November 14, 2003
Oracle Says It May Have to Abandon Hostile PeopleSoft Tender
Oracle realizes it has to get PeopleSoft's acquisition-activated refund program a.k.a. its Customer Assurance Program enjoined or else it may have to drop its $7.3 billion hostile bid for the company as economically unreasonable.

October 17, 2003
Is Oracle Signaling Its Run at PeopleSoft Is Over?
Oracle extends its $19.50-a-share hostile tender offer for the fifth time, moving it from October 17 until midnight of New Year's Eve.

October 10, 2003
PeopleSoft Promises Better-than-Expected Results
Based on preliminary results, PeopleSoft expects its Q3 results to exceed expectations and says that license revenues, total revenues and earnings per share will surpass its guidance. It attributes the results to its "powerful combination" with JD Edwards.

October 3, 2003
DOJ May Challenge Oracle Bid for PeopleSoft
USA Today quotes nameless lawyers said to be familiar with the situation who think the Justice Department is revving up to challenge Oracle's bid for PeopleSoft, noting that the DOJ has assigned Kent Brown, identified as one of its most senior antitrust lawyers, to the probe.

September 12, 2003
Oracle Headed for Proxy Fight
Larry Ellison says he expects the Justice Department to approve his pursuit of PeopleSoft in October or November while, the Financial Times claims that IBM told the DOJ that an Oracle-PeopleSoft tie-up would significantly limit competition. PeopleSoft's stock closes in on Oracle's $19.50-a-share offer.

September 5, 2003
PeopleSoft to Offer Up 750-1,000 Living Sacrifices
During a two-hour presentation to analysts, PeopleSoft says it will cut 750 to 1,000 jobs, 7%-8% of its workforce, to contain costs now that it's trying to swallow its $1.8 billion JD Edwards purchase.

September 5, 2003
Oracle Extends PeopleSoft Tender
Claiming that "PeopleSoft's plans means confusion and execution risk for customers and shareholders," Oracle extends its
hostile bid for the company for the fourth time, moving the tender deadline from September 19 to October 17.

August 29, 2003
PeopleSoft Claims Oracle Bid Has Sputtered Out
"I truly believe that the Oracle saga is over." - says PeopleSoft CEO Craig Conway, figuring PeopleSoft's combination with JD
Edwards has killed the Oracle bid for all intents and purposes.

August 1, 2003
Oracle Waits on DOJ Before Trying To Crush PeopleSoft's Poison Pill
Oracle asks the Chancery Court in Delaware to hold off on its suit to try to get PeopleSoft to drop its poison pill until at least mid-September.

June 16, 2003
Oracle Makes Shock-and-Awe Raid on PeopleSoft
Oracle mounts a surprise $5.1 billion cash raid on PeopleSoft, just four days after PeopleSoft announced that it would buy JD Edwards for $1.7 billion in stock.

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